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Airbus Thursday raised its outlook for the global market for large commercial airliners over the next 20 years, with demand driven by emerging economies, expanding airline networks, growing low-cost carriers and the need to replace inefficient aircraft. The Toulouse, France-based company said it now estimates demand at some 25,000 aircraft worth $3.1 trillion through 2028. That’s an increase of 2.9% compared to its projection in February, 2008, of a potential market of 24,300 planes worth $2.8 trillion.

With households and companies trying to preserve cash amid the global economic slowdown, Airbus expects airline passenger traffic to contract 2% this year but to expand 4.6% in 2010. Longer term, airline passenger traffic will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the airline sector and should grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% through 2029, requiring 24,100 new aircraft worth $2.9 trillion, Airbus said. That figure includes 10,000 jets to replace aging aircraft. Cargo traffic, currently depressed due to weak economic activity, is expected to grow by 5.2% annually on average over the forecast period, Airbus said. This will require 3,440 additional freighters, of which 850 will be new aircraft, with the remainder conversions from passenger jets.

In its 2008 long-term market outlook, Airbus had projected average annual passenger traffic growth of 4.9% and cargo traffic rising by 5.8% over 20 years.